What happened to MH370? Prediction markets might give us the answer

Could the wisdom of crowds locate

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missing Flight MH370? Perhaps with a sufficient number of experts, each bringing a little knowledge of the ocean, currents, wreck salvage, and so forth, the lost aircraft could be found by pooling all this expertise.

While an individual expert’s prediction is limited to their special knowledge, taken together the combined wisdom of experts could locate the vessel more accurately than a range of other predictive tools.

A method known as prediction markets – the combination of a large number of educated estimates – has demonstrated astonishing accuracy in the past. Perhaps it’s time to apply prediction market theory to Flight MH370.

Prediction markets are essentially speculative markets used to aggregate information with a view to making accurate predictions. As an advocate of their power and someone who has researched them extensively, this way of locating lost planes or ships is certainly plausible.

https://theconversation.com/what-happened-to-mh370-prediction-markets-might-give-us-the-answer-45528